Campbell (2002) The Young and Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment Theory

Abstract: Recent research has demonstrated that Democrats and Republicans are divided along religious line—religiously committed voters (Protestant and Catholic) identify as Republicans, while secularly oriented voters are more likely to be Democrats. This presents an excellent opportunity to test an implication of the Michigan model of party identification—that, in a realigning period, it is young voters who are more likely to reflect the new electoral cleavage. Using the Monitoring the Future archives of over 230,000 surveys administered to high school seniors from 1976-1996, I offer evidence that there is a sharp partisan divide defined by religious commitment among youth just on the cusp of obtaining the franchise. Furthermore, data from the NES (1980-98) confirm that the link between religiosity and Republican Party ID is stronger among younger than older voters.

Excellent opportunity to test Realignment Theory because there is a division—between religiously committed and secularly oriented voters. Are younger voters more likely to realign along religious versus secular lines—as literature on party identification and realignment suggests they should.

Realignment:
Observable changes in mass political behavior as the coalitions comprising the Republicans and Democrats shifts; there are periods in American history when the divisions between the parties are defined in a new way.

--Party ID

--Religion

Independent variables:
-party ID (choose your political preference—strong to weak democrat/republican)
-religious affiliation
-church attendance
-religious salience
-sociodemographic measures

The MTF measure?
--religiosity measure: (1) participation in religious community, (2) salience of religious beliefs

In the late 1970s, religiosity measures and correlation with the GOP is low… as the 1990s get along
Campbell (2002) The Young and Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment Theory